What Happens Next?

by Patrick Appel

Joel Rubin lists his questions:

1. What is the Army doing?  Will they follow Mubarak? There were rumors earlier in the day that the military would push out Mubarak, call for martial law and make steps to democracy. That scenario appears dashed.  The Administration needs to press all its contacts for real answers.

2. What will the protestors do?  Will more come out tomorrow? The protestors were planning on one million marchers for tomorrow.  Now how many? If they needed anything else to fuel their rage, Mubarak just gave it to them.

3. Is an “orderly transition” to democracy really possible with Suleiman or any other remnant of the Mubarak regime in charge?Mubarak said that he will transfer power to his vice president, Omar Suleiman, and will support changes to the Constitutional amendments, as well as move to end the Emergency Law -- but that has been said before, and Mubarak insisted changes would be made only after stability has been restored, which, after watching the chants from Tahrir, doesn’t seem likely. There’s a credibility problem here.

Rozen does some reporting:

“I have a feeling that we’re at the endgame now," said Stephen P. Cohen, president of the Institute for Middle East Peace and Development, and a former consultant to the National Intelligence Council who speaks frequently with Cairo military officials. "Mubarak has acted in such a way as to make Suleiman impotent. ...We’re in a dangerous moment."