Nate Silver decodes Wisconsin polls:

The public might not be enamored of public sector unions, but by about a 2:1 margin, they think they have the right to exist.

I suspect, then, that the near-term political risks to Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker are mostly to the downside. Part of it is that, as in debates over the budget at the federal level, there is an element of what chess players call zugzwang: since any specific solution over deficit reduction is likely to be fairly unpopular, the first mover or perceived aggressor is often at a disadvantage.

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