When Confidence Does And Doesn't Work

James Fowler's makes a distinction:

We can predict ... that overconfidence is most likely to help in “evolutionarily salient” contexts that are similar to the adaptive challenges of our past, such as individual combat like boxing. It is least likely to help in “evolutionarily novel” contextssuch as sitting at a desk in a bank guessing the behavior of 100 million strangers, or commanding thousands of invisible troops from an underground bunker. ... The big decisions of today are dependent on multiple and complex interacting bureaucracies and stakeholders, in which accurate assessments and painstaking planning may be boring but are critical to successan evolutionary novelty we are not “designed” for.