Too Early To Poll Watch


Blumenthal says we should mostly ignore horse race polls this early in the cycle:

Since 1988, only a small fraction of the public has paid close attention to first phase of the presidential campaign -- less than 20 percent from 1988 to 2004, roughly 20 percent during 2007 -- but public engagement jumps significantly after the Iowa caucuses and typically continues to grow until "Super Tuesday" in February or March.

Another very critical facet of phase two: The number of viable candidates typically shrinks to just one or two and awareness and recognition of those candidates grows significantly. The increased engagement and narrowing of the field makes for considerable volatility in national horse race polls.