The Pew authors conclude that by 2035 a new midsize car with a conventional drivetrain might get about 50 mpg on-road and those with hybrid-electric drivetrains roughly 75 mpg on-road (assuming new standards or market pressures continue to accelerate vehicle design and fuel efficiency improvements). Of course it takes longer to replace the older cars on the road. Even so, they say that the light vehicle fleet could perhaps attain an on-road fuel economy in the 35 to 40 mpg range by 2035 and 45 to 60 mpg by 2050 (much higher than the 21 mpg of today's on-road fleet or more conservative government projections of about 30 mpg for 2035).
But don't forget about the rebound effect.
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