Ton Jensen muses:

Sarah Palin's biggest obstacle to the White House may not be her remarkable level of unpopularity with Democrats and independents. Her more immediate problem is that she simply doesn't have much support in the vital early Republican states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Florida.

Jensen acknowledges that polling can change wildly, but he argues that politicians who gain momentum "tend to be folks who start out with very low name recognition and gain more and more ground as they become better known" - which doesn't apply to Palin. He also notes that if "Mike Huckabee doesn't run that will definitely help Palin in these early states".

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