EgyptMohammedAbedGetty

by Patrick Appel

Marc Lynch isn't betting that what happened in Tunisia will be replicated in other Arab nations. He presents solid evidence for his skepticism:

Dictators learn from each other, not just from the past.  The Arab Summit last week displayed this very clearly.  Every Arab leader is on red alert at the moment, determined not to repeat Ben Ali's mistakes.   They are frantically offering concessions on economic  issues, reversing price rises and increasing subsidies.  And of course they are ramping up the repressive apparatus, on the streets and online, to try to stop any snowballs from rolling before they get too big.   The lesson most seem to have learned is not "be more democratic," it is "be tougher."  No Arab leader seems likely to be taken by surprise, or to disregard the early signs of trouble.  The success of Egypt's protestors yesterday doesn't mean that they won't be violently crushed today. 

However:

There are strong reasons to expect most of these regimes to survive, which we shouldn't ignore in a moment of enthusiasm.  But we also shouldn't ignore this unmistakable new energy, the revelation of the crumbling foundations of Arab authoritarian regimes, or the continuing surprises which should keep all analysts humble about what might follow.

(Photo: Egyptian demonstrators pray in central Cairo during a protest to demand the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak and calling for reforms on January 25, 2011. By Mohammed Abed/AFP/Getty Images)

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