There's plenty of time for Obama to wind up with a Reagan-like cakewalk or a Carter-level debacle, or anything in between. The key takeaway, as it has been all of 2010, is that Obama is probably doing a bit better than the economy alone would predict, and certainly isn't doing worse. If the economy is better in 2011-2012 than it was in 2009-2010, and no major negative external events intervene, and he continues to do the other things he's doing that are working, he's likely to be comfortably re-elected -- but those are three huge questions.
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