PalinvsClinton

Nyhan suspects that Palin would throw off this election model, which is premised on economic fundamentals:

What makes the 2012 campaign especially hard to predict is that Sarah Palin has a significant chance to be the GOP nominee (currently estimated at 20.9% on Intrade) despite having what seem to be unprecedented negatives among an early-stage presidential candidate ... Obama should lose if the economy is bad, but we don't have a good precedent for a presidential nominee who enters the primary campaign with an unfavorable rating of 52%. It's possible that Palin would significantly underperform the forecast, giving Obama a chance in circumstances where he might otherwise face near-certain defeat.

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