Rasmussen On The Ropes


The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average.

The core reason, as Joyner explains:

Rasmussen’s sample is biased because they’re polling on the cheap using robocalls, which by law can’t dial cell phones, and otherwise cutting corners rather than because of some agenda to propagandize for the GOP.   The end result, however, is the same: Polls that can’t be trusted.