Ezra Klein gives odds:
[I]t's much easier to see how divided government worsens the deficit and very hard to see how it reduces it. The vehicle for worsening the deficit [extension of the Bush tax cuts] already exists and has Republican support. The vehicle for reducing the deficit doesn't. And that's before we talk about health-care reform, where Republicans have supported both repeal and, more specifically, repeal of the bill's cost controls, either of which would worsen the deficit picture further.
That, anyway, is where I'd put the odds. For those who disagree, what are the deficit-reducing bills divided government will pass that will have more impact on the deficit than the tax cuts (and, if you think it'll happen, repealing health-care reform, which CBO says will worsen the budget outlook)?
Kevin Drum is less sure because he doesn't have a good grasp on Obama's position. I fear Ezra's right; and that the GOP will be as nihilist with respect to this country's economy and polity in the near future as in the recent past. They are entirely a negative force right now, as McConnell indicated. What are they actually for, except revenge?