In case you were encouraged by the president's barn-burning speech last night, Bob Shrum just predicted the Dems will retain the House and Senate. So it's over for the Dems. Not since the late great - and equally congenial - Johnny Apple has someone been so wrong so consistently about everything. Nate Silver defends his prediction methods here - he has now upped the chances of a GOP Senate take-over from 15 percent two weeks ago to 22 percent today.