Jonathan Bernstein gauges Palin's chances:
[T]he third party fantasy is irrelevant. If there’s a double-dip recession and unemployment is over 10%, then odds are good that any GOP nominee would win.
Yes, Palin is very unpopular right now, no question about it. That hurts her chances of winning the nomination. But if she does manage to do that, well, we’re not talking about today’s Palin any more. Republicans would rally around her; newsmagazines and network news poobahs would do features on how she’s grown since 08; I don’t need to tell you how enthusiastic the folks at Fox News and conservative talk show hosts will be.