Uh-oh:

Today, 44 percent of likely voters plan to vote for Proposition 19the measure that would legalize marijuanawhile 49 percent plan to vote against it, with 7 percent undecided. This is an 8-point drop in support since September (52% yes, 41% no, 7% undecided).

Support has declined among Democrats (56% today, 63% September), dropped sharply among independents (40% today, 65% September), and remains low among Republicans (30% today, 32% September). Support has declined across nearly all demographic groups, most strikingly among Latinos (42% today, 63% September). Most likely voters say the outcome of the vote on Proposition 19 is important (52% very important, 28% somewhat important). Those planning to vote no are more likely to consider the outcome very important (67%) than those planning to vote yes (40%).

TPM's comprehensive tracking of recent polls here. The scare tactics are working, especially among core Independents. All of which means getting the younger and more libertarian vote out is vital.

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