Handicapping The Horserace

Harry Joe Enten does the math:

Republicans [are] on their way to gaining back a majority. The exact seat gain will remain uncertain until right before the election. The present Cook Political Report ratings and generic ballot suggests that Republicans will gain 50+ seats, which matches my prior February estimate. The one thing I am certain of is that something quite unusual would have to happen for Democrats to hold onto the House after November 2nd.

The question for me is whether the FNC/RNC frenzy, combined with mere usual Democratic turnout, could tip the Senate too. And since that frenzy is based on rabid fantasies about what is actually happening in the world, the next question is whether that will then pierce the current far right bubble, or enable it to grow some more.

My bet, if I had to make one, is that the FNC/RNC will do extremely well, get even more wacky, overplay their hand, nominate Palin for president and then usher in a real and more solid Democratic majority with Obama empowered in ways he hasn't been so far. Which is worse for conservatism - and the country - in the long run than constructive engagement with the president now.

But that's a scenario far too far ahead to predict for sure. The economy is the wild card. If we really are entering an endless jobless recession, all bets are off. But the wilder the right gets, and as long as Obama doesn't take the bait, his calm and reason will win the day in the end, especially if the economy recovers and the wars end.