"The Marketplace For Punditry"

Justin Wolfers capitalizes on partisan demand by predicting that "Democrats will retain control of the House and the Senate." His reasoning:

If I’m right?  Well you can bet that I’ll beat the drums loudly and tell everyone in sight that I called it.  I’ll blog it all week.  I’ll write an op-ed explaining my insights. I’ll go on to Jon Stewart’s show to explain the fine art of psephology.  Hopefully you’ll be calling me the Nouriel Roubini of political punditry.  I’ll go on to a new life of lucrative speaking engagements and big book advances, while I beat back my coterie of devoted followers.

And if I’m wrong?  We both know there won’t be any real consequences. 

I’ll be sure to sell some clever story.  You know, there was weather on election day (hot or cold, wet or dry it all works!) and this messed with turnout.  Or perhaps, This Time Was Different, and my excellent forecast was knocked off course by our first black president, by rising cellphone penetration or a candidate who may not be a witch.  I’ll remind you how I nailed previous elections.  (Follow the links, you’ll see I’m doing it already!)  I’ll bluster and use long words like sociotropic, or perhaps heteroskedastic.  And I’ll remind you that my first name is Professor, and I went to a prestigious school.  More to the point, if I’m wrong, I’m sure we’ll all have forgotten by the time the 2012 election rolls around.  Shhhh… I won’t tell if you won’t.

(Hat tip: Sides)