Tom Jensen notices that"Obama voters who are planning to show up [for the midterm elections] generally have more negative feelings toward him than Obama voters at large":
Our national poll last week- which is conducted with registered, rather than likely, voters- found that 88% of people who voted for Obama still approve of the job he's doing. It's a different story with likely voters in the 16 states we've polled since switching over to LVs for our horse race polling in mid-August ...
What these numbers suggest to me is that Democrats staying home aren't necessarily disappointed with how things have gone so far. The Democrats not voting are more pleased with how Obama's done than the Democrats who are voting. And when you're happy you simply don't have the sense of urgency about going out and voting to make something change. That complacency, more than the Republicans, is Democrats' strongest foe this year.
How do you combat that complacency? My view is seize the issue of the debt and show how the Republicans will sky-rocket it under their current plans. Outflank the Republicans on fiscal conservatism. Hype the debt commission. Let Obama campaign on his determination to balance the budget long-term and make the tough decisions now.