Says it all, really:

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Barring some August surprise, this is largely set till September. Here's what I think has not been factored in: the president has barely begun to make his case for his first year and a half. The case is much stronger on fundamentals, in my view, than is now believed. I don't doubt that the GOP will do well this fall. What i do doubt is that it's based on anything more than protest in an amnesiac era of no good choices, and almost no margin for error either.

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