Predicting Kennedy

Jon Rowe's lightbulb switches on:

The case will very likely be heard by the Supreme Court of the United States. Assuming Kagan is on the bench and the lineup remains, I predict there will be 4 votes for gay marriage, 4 against with Justice Kennedy breaking the tie AGAINST constitutionalizing gay marriage. BUT Kennedy being Kennedy he very likely would “split the baby” by demanding a federal constitutional right to civil unions that grant all the rights of marriage other than the name.

Interesting - and plausible.