Austin Frakt flags this graphic from economist Joe Newhouse's new article:
If health spending increases at just 2 percentage points above GDP (which is low by historical standards), government spending on non-health goods and services must plummet (yellow line). If such a reduction in government non-health spending seems unlikely too, then by process of elimination the health care cost curve must bend. After rejecting increased debt, taxation, or reductions in non-health spending it’s the only option left.