I do think that things are more fluid than [Millman] implies...there's still plenty of time for someone other than Mitt Romney to play the Romney role he imagines (Rick Perry?). We don't have a good sense yet of whether Sarah Palin's appeal within Republican primary electorates is capped...well, we do have a sense that it is capped, but whether that's at 70% (not much of a problem) or 40% (very big problem) doesn't seem clear to me right now. Some numbers: the current YouGov/Economist poll gives her a 77/17% favorable rating among Republicans...but we don't really know how many of those 77% are thinking of her as a presidential candidate. For what it's worth, YouGov/Economist has her leading the horse race with 28%; that doesn't strike me as a very impressive total for a candidate with excellent name recognition against a bunch of unknowns. Of course, there's also the very solid possibility that she bails anyway for any one of a thousand reasons. But I think Millman's piece is very nicely set in the real-life world of nominations, with its interactions between various party elites and the voters.
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