Shorter Primary Day Analysis

Always wait for Pareene:

Incumbents are in trouble, unless they are "outsider" incumbents. An incumbent can become an outsider by having an opponent who is friends with insiders, as long as those insiders aren't the Club for Growth or, again, Bill Clinton.

Women are expected to do great in November, unless they are from Washington, or are considered part of the "establishment." (As long as your definition of the establishment does not include eBay.) Again, if you are endorsed by Sarah Palin, none of this applies.

The Tea Parties won big, except that they might've helped the GOP lose big in November, which would be a victory for the Tea Parties. Mitt Romney is in serious trouble.

Voters are very, very angry, so only expect between 90 and 95 percent of Congress to be reelected.