Lowering The Temperature

Nasadata

Bradford Plumer flags the EPA's new global warming analysis:

Yesterday, the EPA released its modeling of the Kerry-Lieberman climate bill. A lot of the coverage focused on the agency's conclusion that the cap-and-trade program would be quite affordablecosting families less than a dollar a day. But I'd say the most salient part of the analysis was the section Brad Johnson highlighted: If the United States passes something like the Kerry-Lieberman climate bill and helps negotiate an international agreement on carbon emissions, we'll have a 75 percent chance of keeping temperature rises below the danger zone of 2°C. But if we do nothing, our chances of meeting that goal are roughly 1 percent.

That's the difference between barreling headlong toward catastrophe and staying safe.

Steinglass asks:

Maybe the EPA is wrong about these probabilities. But if it's right, how much is that worth?

Chart via Leonhardt.