Patrick Dunleavy's analysis from earlier this morning:

There are three possible outcomes, in decreasing likelihood of their occurring:

-  Cameron minority government: expect a new election in October 2010 or May 2011.

-  Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition – should last at least two years, because constitutional change takes time. Gordon Brown has offered legislation to create fixed four-year terms, which might imply a government that lasts until 2014.

-  Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition – without PR being included, it’s hard to see this lasting longer than May 2011.

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