Patrick Dunleavy's analysis from earlier this morning:
There are three possible outcomes, in decreasing likelihood of their occurring:
- Cameron minority government: expect a new election in October 2010 or May 2011.
- Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition should last at least two years, because constitutional change takes time. Gordon Brown has offered legislation to create fixed four-year terms, which might imply a government that lasts until 2014.
- Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition without PR being included, it’s hard to see this lasting longer than May 2011.
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