Scott Lucas reacts to the exit poll:
The surprise is that the Liberal Democrats come out so low, losing three seats since 2005. But that in turn turns out to be bad news for the Tories: there is not much lower that the Lib Dems can go in an actual result, so the Conservatives have to hope the Labour vote is inflated in the exit poll to have any shot at a majority.
From Coffee Houses's life-blog:
The exit poll contrasts with the mood from both the Tories and the Lib Dems. One Lib Dem source told me a few hours ago they were expecting to get close to a hundred seats and this exit poll has them losing seats.
A possible explanation at Bagehot's place:
Vince Cable on the BBC is pointing out that exit polls don't include postal votes, which this time around could be as many as a quarter of the total. Meanwhile: rumours are doing the rounds that Labour is worried about Sunderland, which ought to be a stronghold and prides itself on being the first seat to report.