She will get fewer votes than Sotomayor. But I suspect ethnic politics is a bigger factor than the mood of conservatives. Several Republican senators didn't want to vote against the first Latina nominee. They're not going to have a similar reason to vote for Kagan. Moreover, they probably don't want to explain why they voted against Obama's liberal Latina nominee but for his liberal non-Latina nominee.
Is non-Latina now code for Jewish? Careful now. The Foxman cometh.