AVIGDORMayaHitij:Pool:Getty

Stratfor's George Friedman, not a natural antagonist to the Jewish state, wonders if this could be a turning point against the Netanyahu-directed assisted suicide of Israel. After all, Israel opened fire on a ship from a NATO member, Turkey.  Should NATO treat this as an attack on every member nation?

The tougher Israel is, the more the flotilla’s narrative takes hold. As the Zionists knew in 1947 and the Palestinians are learning, controlling public opinion requires subtlety, a selective narrative and cynicism. As they also knew, losing the battle can be catastrophic. It cost Britain the Mandate and allowed Israel to survive. Israel’s enemies are now turning the tables. This maneuver was far more effective than suicide bombings or the Intifada in challenging Israel’s public perception and therefore its geopolitical position (though if the Palestinians return to some of their more distasteful tactics like suicide bombing, the Turkish strategy of portraying Israel as the instigator of violence will be undermined).

Israel is now in uncharted waters. It does not know how to respond. It is not clear that the Palestinians know how to take full advantage of the situation, either. But even so, this places the battle on a new field, far more fluid and uncontrollable than what went before. The next steps will involve calls for sanctions against Israel. The Israeli threats against Iran will be seen in a different context, and Israeli portrayal of Iran will hold less sway over the world."

Note that the flag on that ship was Turkey, a NATO member. Will Turkey demand invocation of NATO's Article 5?

And this will cause a political crisis in Israel. If this government survives, then Israel is locked into a course that gives it freedom of action but international isolation. If the government falls, then Israel enters a period of domestic uncertainty. In either case, the flotilla achieved its strategic mission. It got Israel to take violent action against it. In doing so, Israel ran into its own fist.

(Photo: Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman briefs the media during a press conference on May 31, 2010 in Jerusalem, Israel. By Maya Hitij - Pool/Getty Images.)

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