28 Seats Shy Of A Tory Majority?

PoliticsHome's current projection:


Notice that the Tory vote keeps going up, though. They're at 35.5 percent now. If they can add a few more points, they could get a clear, if fragile, majority. The latest Ipsos/MORI polling in swing Labour seats gives the Tories real hope of a small majority, depending on what happens elsewhere in the country. The map above looks like an electoral Rubik's Cube for a reason. If the Liberals had not had a transformative campaign, Cameron's strategy of focusing on the marginal swing seats would be bearing more dividends.

Notice also the real news here: if the Liberals come in second, two points ahead of Labour, and yet get less than half Labour's seats, the pressure for electoral reform - and some sort of more proportional representation - will intensify. In some ways, the battle now is between the Tories and the Liberals - to ensure or to avoid a deep reform of the voting system.