Could Labour Collapse Below 20 Percent?

More Brits are wondering. A new poll today shows Tory support pretty solid, but enormous volatility among the two other parties:

Today's poll shows Conservative support is holding firm, with 83% of supporters saying they do not expect to change their mind before polling day. By contrast, only 69% of Lib Dems and 68% of Labour voters say they will stick with their current choice. Almost a third of people supporting Labour say they might end up backing another party instead.

If the Lib-Dem surge continues to hold - and it shows no sign of wilting - there may come a moment in which Labour voters shift to the Lib-Dems to stop the Tories. I can't see a similar surge from the Lib-Dems to Gordon Brown, especially since Clegg has ruled out a coalition with the current Labour leader (but perhaps not if Labour dumps Brown and elects David Miliband immediately after the election).

Still: the bottom line is enormous flux. But the Tories may be settling down:

35% say Cameron is the most competent potential prime minister (up three), against 29% who say Brown and 22% Clegg.