What Are The Chances? Ctd


Nate Silver thinks health care has better than a 75 percent chance of passing:

Over the last 24-48 hours -- coinciding with the release of the CBO score -- we've now moved into the second phase, which is counting up the yesses. And so far, Democrats are doing a pretty good job of it. Firm-seeming yes votes from different people representing different constituencies -- Kucinich (wavering liberals), Markey (swing-district), Gordon (retirees), Gutierrez (Hispanics) have been unveiled, with one or two others looking likely to follow. As Dayen pointed out earlier today, if you take the seeming yes votes and add them to the people who are uncommitted but voted for the bill last time around, they add up to 217. This math isn't foolproof but by any means but that's a pretty important threshold to pass.

(Photo: US President Barack Obama delivers remarks on health insurance reform at George Mason University's Patriot Center in Fairfax, Virgina, on March 19, 2010. Obama hailed this weekend's 'historic' congressional vote on his health plan as the culmination of a century of struggle, at a euphoric campaign-style rally. By Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images)