The Results Begin To Trickle In

Marc Lynch checks in on the Iraqi election:

Over the last few years, most American analysts have argued that these elections would offer a path to power through the ballot box for the leaders of the Awakenings.   Their evident washout in Anbar suggest that they won't, which may trigger a lot of the fears of those analysts (including me) who for years warned about the dangers of not accommodating Sunnis in the political system or integrating the Awakenings and Sons of Iraq into the state.  But the response thus far suggests reasons to be less worried than in the past.  During last January's provincial election, when it appeared that Abu Risha's list had lost,  he threatened to turn Anbar into a "graveyard" for the Islamic Party if his List was not declared the victor.  Despite mounting claims of fraud, I haven't yet been seeing many such threats this time, and don't see any reason yet to anticipate that it will trigger the much-feared resurgence of the insurgency.