Its support just sank 7 points in one week - down to a 21 percent favorable rating. The short term impact of healthcare reform seems to be a small but real bump for the Dems and Obama, and a narrowing of the intensity gap between the two parties.

I have no doubt about the anti-incumbent populism out there. But I do doubt the idea of an unstoppable Republican wave. The reforms in healthcare - the ban on pre-existing conditions abuses, universal access to insurance - are popular when broken down as campaign slogans. And it will be very easy for Democrats to say that the Republicans voted against all of them, because their behavior this past year has been so aggressively hostile. If the economy recovers some more ... Obama is a good closer.

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