Steve Lombardo's thoughts:
T]his is going to be a very good year for the GOP. But there's a big difference between gaining 25 seats in the House and gaining 40 seats: picking up 40 seats would give the Republicans a narrow majority. Call it the "15 seat gap," and it's almost entirely dependent on a) perceptions of the economy and b) perceptions of the President's performance. It's clear that an electoral wave has been building since last fall. The problem for Republicans is that at some point a wave must crest. And so the question that begs to be asked is this: are we seeing the crest of the wave now or is it still gaining strength and getting bigger? There is conflicting data on this.
With the Massa implosion, the revival of healthcare's fortunes, the Cheney-Kistol over-reach, the fact that the public thinks Obama is being more reasonable than the GOP, the relative buoyancy of Obama's ratings, his continued success against al Qaeda, withdrawal from Iraq ... I'm much more bullish on the Dems this fall than most. I could be wrong of the economy swoons again, and if the Dems cannot pass healthcare.
But in many ways, the narrative on healthcare is now working to Obama's advantage. He's been badly bloodied, but if he endures and wins, that makes his victory look like that of an underdog. That always plays better than the man who walks on water.