My own view is that healthcare reform will play a minor role in November's elections - because of amnesia, and other events. But in so far as it does play a role, my hunch is that it will help Democrats. My belief is that when people absorb the details that people with pre-existing conditions will soon be able to get insurance, that no-one can get priced out of their current insurance plan by massive sudden premium hikes, and that lifetime limits on insurance are now over ... well, people will like it. Why would they not? And if Obama seizes the initiative on debt reduction and calls the GOP bluff on debt this summer and fall, he can outflank them on the right as well. Meanwhile people like him far more than they do the GOP.
More to the point: Obama can campaign on these things. And he and the Democrats can point plainly to all the GOP and say: they wanted no change; they tried to kill it all. If you still believe in change, vote for us. We delivered, we'll deliver again. The more determined the GOP is to argue that this will kill the Democrat vote in the fall, the less I believe them. If the economy is reviving by then, their obstructionism will fall even flatter.
Obama's favorable since November after the jump, compared with Romney's - and Palin's. Brutal:
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