Macroeconomic Advisers (via email):
Less aggressively negative assumptions for monthly GDP in December would imply fourth-quarter GDP growth between 6% and 7%. Even higher quarterly growth rates are possible. Thus, we believe the risks are strongly on the side of an upward revision to Q4 GDP growth, and growth of 7% or higher in the fourth quarter is a distinct possibility.
I think you should look at this confusing report today in two ways.
Seasonality is useful for recognizing trends. As a result, the trend is clearly positive. But unadjusted unemployment shows total worker suffering. And that's quite awful, as the broader rate including marginally attached unemployed who can't find full time work is up to a whopping 18% -- the highest we've seen since the beginning of the recession. So while the economy is beginning to make a turn, things are still very, very bad on the actual employment front.
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