Nate Silver seconds Bernstein:

[T]he decision to proceed aggressively on health care had been made at least by early April, at a time when Obama's approval rating was about 60 percent and what few polls there were indicated a general desire for reform. The bigger mistake -- and I've been saying this since at least last June -- may have been in giving the Congress so much latitude to craft its policy, which resulted in an extremely protracted process and news cycle after news cycle in which the lead story was Democrats yelling at one another.

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