I can't really understand the president's actions in the last couple of weeks if the bill is likely to fail.
Obama could have, had he thought the bill was dead, retreated to a "pass something" mode, and pushed for a small beans, happy-talk bill that either would have passed, or which he could have used to bash Republican opposition. The idea that he would spend a month or so elevating the importance of the original bill, and eventually putting his own personal stamp on the House/Senate compromise, without having a pretty good sense that it would pass just doesn't seem likely to me. Oh, and the "Obama plan" sure looked designed to get through reconciliation (notice the absence of House-favored national exchanges and the antitrust thing, both of which are Byrd rule bait). If the White House is just scoring points, why care about such things?