That's Ezra's bottom line. From Jonathan Bernstein's summit primer:

Remember who the audience is here: nervous Democratic Members of the House, who probably already believe that passage of the bill is better for them than failure, but don't want to be the ones who actually have cast the vote for it.  What do they want?  I wish I knew, but we haven't had very much good reporting...I don't think I've seen a single extensive interview with any of the fifty or so swing Members.  I'm not blaming the reporters (well, not too much), because odds are that most of those fifty want the bill to pass without their vote, but realize that they might have to vote for it after all, and how exactly are you supposed to explain that in an interview? 

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