Weigel runs the numbers:
Is Palin a top 2012 prospect if she runs? Sure, and it’s not clear whether an announcement would push her numbers up or not. But she’s clearly closer to the place that eventual losers Joe Lieberman and John Edwards were boosted by name recognition than to the frontrunner status of candidates like [Hillary] Clinton [in 2008] or Gore [in 2004]. Yes, neither of them won the nomination, but it’s still amazing that Palin, with roughly a third or a half the support among her own base that Clinton and Gore had, is uniquely treated as their standard-bearer.