Civil War In Iran?
Larison continues to caution against military resistance:
I point out that the Green movement probably represents a minority of the minority of pro-Mousavi Iranians, I am reminded that revolutions are led by minorities, but to date there have been no successful revolutions against governments like this one led by a distinct minority that also has no military forces on its side. The “color” revolutions peacefully prevailed over individual leaders and their cronies because the latter presided over very weak states. The Iranian “deep state” is much more powerful, much more entrenched, much more tied into the Iranian economy, and thus far has been entirely loyal to the current regime. For the sake of the protesters, we should hope that Thursday and the days afterwards are peaceful and not a harbinger of armed conflict, because in such a conflict the opposition would have no hope of prevailing.