"The Regime Won Ugly"

Scott Lucas doesn't like to "make artificial sense out of the complex and messy politics of events" but does his best to understand today's events in Iran:

If the opposition had truly been “crushed” today, that might have been sufficient to ensure Ahmadinejad’s longer-term survival, even in the absence of any positive measures. But the Green movement and figures like Mousavi and Karroubi were not crushed. They were bashed about, dispersed, and, most importantly, exposed as tactically naïve with today’s loudly-declared plan to march from Sadeghiyeh Square to the Government’s lair in Azadi. Their ranks have been thinned by the detentions, and their communications have to fight new ways to deal with regime restrictions.

But they are not crushed. They also live for other battles. A Mousavi or Karroubi declaration could come tomorrow or Saturday or later in the work. The Green websites, with new ones emerging as others are closed, will be trying to find the front foot in stories of defiance and justice. And the planning will be moving beyond the tactic of trying to “hijack” the regime’s highlight days.