Matthew Continetti bets against the bill:

It is extremely unlikely that Pelosi will be able to corral the votes necessary to pass a modified Senate bill. The president seems to understand this; in his State of the Union address, he waited a half an hour before mentioning health care. The White House's top priority is a $100 billion jobs bill; once that passes, look for the administration to focus on education and energy. So why the happy talk? As long as the liberal base thinks health care reform could pass, they won't launch a full-scale revolt against the president and the Democratic leadership.

Sargent is being told that the delay is procedural:

The problem in question has been noted before, but it’s gotten lost in the noise: Senate aides say they are unsure how to pass a reconciliation fix to the Senate bill before it’s signed into law, as some House Democrats want.

“How do you fix a bill that hasn’t been passed yet?” one senior Senate aide asks me, stressing that reconciliation is different than the amendment process, which obviously does allow for bills to be fixed before passage. “That’s the fundamental problem.”

Karen Tumulty has more.

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