It is as if George Bush had said: "Join the National Rifle Association and we'll cut your income taxes."
[T]hat bribe will most likely come at a direct cost to others. Exempting unions is expected to reduce the $150 billion in revenue the tax was supposed to raise by about $60 billion. So in order to make up for the lost revenue, it’s entirely possible that Democrats will expand the Medicare payroll tax to cover investment income.
Megan thinks this is just the beginning:
[U]nions get a special two-year exclusion from the tax. Presumably, the unions plan to go back and get their exclusion extended every few years. Otherwise, the deal doesn't make much sense.
How on earth are the unions supposed to get this extended every two years? Is the view that the GOP will never have a majority in the House or the Senate or control of the White House? Is the idea that the anti-union Democrats who killed the Employee Free Choice Act will have a conversion on the road to Damascus? Perhaps all sixty of the Democratic Senators who voted in favor of a version of this tax that did no favors to the unions whatsoever all had their fingers crossed behind their backs when they did this? In a system with as many veto points as we have in the United States, default rules matter. A lot.