by Patrick Appel

Keith Hennessey, who worked on policy in the Bush administration, updates his predictions:

I am lowering from 50% to 35% my prediction for the success of comprehensive health care reform.  I now think the most likely outcome is a much more limited bill becomes law.

  1. Pass a partisan comprehensive bill through the House and through the regular Senate process with 60, leading to a law; (was 30% –> 30%)
  2. Pass a partisan comprehensive bill through the House and through the reconciliation process with 51 Senate Democrats, leading to a law; (was 20% –> 5%)
  3. Fall back to a much more limited bill that becomes law; (was 15% –> 45%)
  4. No bill becomes law this Congress.  (was 35% –> 20%)

We want to hear what you think about this article. Submit a letter to the editor or write to letters@theatlantic.com.