by Patrick Appel
Keith Hennessey, who worked on policy in the Bush administration, updates his predictions:
I am lowering from 50% to 35% my prediction for the success of comprehensive health care reform. I now think the most likely outcome is a much more limited bill becomes law.
- Pass a partisan comprehensive bill through the House and through the regular Senate process with 60, leading to a law; (was 30% > 30%)
- Pass a partisan comprehensive bill through the House and through the reconciliation process with 51 Senate Democrats, leading to a law; (was 20% > 5%)
- Fall back to a much more limited bill that becomes law; (was 15% > 45%)
- No bill becomes law this Congress. (was 35% > 20%)