Jim Burroway passes along speculation that the Ugandan bill, which would sentence gays to death, is likely to pass:
Reuters now suggests that passage of the bill is almost assured due to two factors. The first, we’ve already mentioned, is the fact that 2011 is an election year, and no Member of Parliament can be seen as being supportive of LGBT causes and hope to survive the election. The second factor the one that contributes directly to a decline in donor influence is oil. Foreign aid currently makes up about a third of Uganda’s budget, but with the 2006 discovery of large oil deposits along Uganda’s western border, Uganda is quickly moving to become a major oil producer.