Some early analysis from Enduring America:
1) Is this only a Student Demonstration? The reports and news out so far from Tehran and other cities indicates protests, chants, and opposition activity almost entirely within university campuses. There appears to be little follow-up in the streets or little participation by ordinary people. We need more facts and evidence to prove this, but it appears as though 16 Azar did not turn into yet another day of widespread popular defiance of the regime, as seen during 13 Aban [4 November] or Quds Day [18 September].
2) Is Mir Hossein Mousavi still considered to be the Leader of the Green Wave? Another point to notice is the radicalisation of chants.
The chant considering Mousavi the figurehead of a much vaster struggle against the entire regime and the burning of posters of Imam Khomeini and Ayatollah Khamenei are telling signs of impatience within the student movement and willingness to go beyond Mousavi’s stale and unattractive gradualism and his refusal to take on the pillars of the regime Khamenei especially in a frank and direct way.
This doesn’t bode well for the reformists, as they could have to contend with a widening gap between themselves and rank-and-file greens in the months to come. Additionally, it could also lead to repression against Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi and other leaders, as they could be accused of leading a “counter-revolutionary” movement which aims to overthrow the sacred Islamic Republic, should the footage of Khamenei and Khomeini being burnt be paraded on national television.
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