Frum has a lesson plan:
The leader you want is someone who appeals to the voters you need to gain, not the voters you already have.
American conservatism is in trouble for many reasons, but the most direct and immediate is the swing away from conservatism by educated and professional voters, once the backbone of the Republican party, and especially by educated and professional women. American conservatives have become very skilled at speaking to the swing voters of a generation ago: northern white ethnic Catholics and southern white Protestants, the famous “Reagan Democrats.” Conservative Democrats today make up only about 6 percent of the American electorate. By contrast, college-educated white women make up more than 15 percent of the electorate. It is foolhardy to choose leaders who woo the first group if they repel the latter.