[Re-posted] Charles Franklin looks through the cross-tabs to see where Scozzafava's voters might end up. Her voters have quite highly unfavorable views of Hoffman:
Here is some bad news for Owens. He's losing 25% of the Democratic voters, versus only a 13% defection rate among Republicans. Fully 14% of Dems say they will vote for the Conservative Hoffman. Another 11% were going for Scozzafava. Even if you think all those Scozzafava Dems come back to Owens, the party is not as unified as it needs to be. Independents are also leaning Hoffman by 40-35, with only 15% supporting Scozzafava up for grabs.
What Owens has going for him are very high ratings for Obama in NY-23. Franklin's advice to both campaigns:
Perhaps the best move Owens can make in the last three days is to drape himself in the cloak of Obama, hoping to bring home those wavering 25% of Dems, and use this favorable view of Obama among Scozzafava and undecided to bring in the margin of victory.
Conversely, if Hoffman wants to win the Scozzafava and undecided, he should probably push Republican loyalty more, and opposition (especially angry opposition) to the president less. He's already won over the voters with pitchforks and tea bags. He needs a strategy to close the deal with Reps and others who don't actually despise the president. (Recall the district went 52-47 for Obama.)
So after all that, it still looks like a tossup on the two simplest most direct measures: current vote choice and favorability. When we try to parse the Scozzafava voters, they mostly look like a tossup, with at most a sliver of extra support for Owens. But at most a sliver.
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