After reiterating that special election races are nearly impossible to predict because of low turnout, Nate Silver looks at the consequences of a Hoffman win:
The "extreme" conservatives do have a few electoral advantages over the moderates: more capacity to generate high turnouts amongst their base, more differentiation from the establishment, and arguably a "fresher" message (even if it's all in the packaging). If Hoffman does win by some margin, it won't be so clear that these conservatives are in fact less electable than their more moderate Republican brethren, at least in terms of 2010.