Today Doesn't Matter? I
Nate Silver says the races in VA and NJ are not going to tell us much about 2010:
[T]he fact that gubernatorial races are not a reliable benchmark does not mean the Democrats are not in trouble in 2010 -- whoa, too many double negatives there -- nor that Democrats might not have done better if Obama's approval rating was 62 percent instead of 52 percent. It just means that New Jersey and Virginia don't have particularly much informational value -- we won't become very much smarter about the future based on what happens there. To the extent that we do learn something, it will probably be hints about turnout, motivation and enthusiasm, rather than something about the electorate's policy preferences.